Analsysis of House races won't produce meaningful results
I've decided to not analyze the House races after realizing that the incumbent advantage in Representative races skews the results so much that the data is mostly useless. There was no incumbent in the Senate race, as the former Senator Bob Graham retired this year. Graham is a Democrat.
posted by Brandon Adams @ 7:30 PM 0 comments to http://electionexamination.blogspot.com/
President Bush given greater preference than Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties in Florida
After being urged to do so in an email, I've examined the difference between votes cast for President and Senate, by party, in Florida. President Bush gained a higher percentage of the vote than the Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties.
In the following chart a positive number in the column comparing the percentage vote between the Presidential and Senate races indicates how many more percentage points than the Senate candidate the Presidential candidate had. A negative number indicates how fewer percentage points a party's Presidential candidate had than his Senate candidate counterpart.
|
County |
Bush |
Kerry |
Senate Rep |
Senate Dem. |
%Pres – Sen Rep |
%Pres – Sen Dem |
||||
|
Lafayette |
73.98% |
25.41% |
54.57% |
42.90% |
19.42% |
-17.49% |
||||
|
Dixie |
68.84% |
30.42% |
52.68% |
43.37% |
16.15% |
-12.95% |
||||
|
Liberty |
63.79% |
35.42% |
48.75% |
49.12% |
15.03% |
-13.71% |
||||
|
Holmes |
77.25% |
21.81% |
63.41% |
32.35% |
13.84% |
-10.54% |
||||
|
Taylor |
63.71% |
35.54% |
50.17% |
46.98% |
13.54% |
-11.45% |
||||
|
Hardee |
69.65% |
29.64% |
56.41% |
39.30% |
13.24% |
-9.65% |
||||
|
Wakulla |
57.61% |
41.62% |
45.10% |
52.05% |
12.51% |
-10.43% |
||||
|
Suwannee |
70.58% |
28.61% |
58.45% |
39.00% |
12.14% |
-10.39% |
||||
|
Gilchrist |
70.37% |
28.75% |
58.86% |
37.40% |
11.51% |
-8.65% |
||||
|
Franklin |
58.55% |
40.47% |
47.13% |
50.26% |
11.42% |
-9.79% |
||||
|
Hamilton |
54.97% |
44.50% |
44.75% |
52.68% |
10.23% |
-8.18% |
||||
|
Union |
72.64% |
26.76% |
62.49% |
35.49% |
10.15% |
-8.73% |
||||
|
Madison |
50.51% |
48.73% |
40.58% |
56.74% |
9.93% |
-8.01% |
||||
|
Columbia |
67.05% |
32.14% |
57.15% |
39.89% |
9.90% |
-7.75% |
||||
|
Calhoun |
63.41% |
35.50% |
53.69% |
43.31% |
9.72% |
-7.81% |
||||
|
Levy |
62.51% |
36.48% |
53.40% |
43.56% |
9.12% |
-7.09% |
||||
|
Bradford |
69.61% |
29.90% |
60.82% |
36.67% |
8.79% |
-6.77% |
||||
|
Gulf |
66.07% |
33.05% |
57.38% |
40.13% |
8.69% |
-7.08% |
||||
|
Baker |
77.73% |
21.90% |
69.16% |
28.95% |
8.57% |
-7.05% |
||||
|
Highlands |
62.36% |
36.99% |
54.72% |
42.15% |
7.64% |
-5.16% |
||||
|
Washington |
71.09% |
28.09% |
63.45% |
34.15% |
7.63% |
-6.06% |
||||
|
Jackson |
61.20% |
38.15% |
53.73% |
44.24% |
7.47% |
-6.09% |
||||
|
Okeechobee |
57.28% |
42.23% |
50.00% |
45.84% |
7.29% |
-3.61% |
||||
|
Citrus |
56.86% |
42.14% |
49.68% |
46.32% |
7.19% |
-4.17% |
||||
|
Jefferson |
44.11% |
55.29% |
36.93% |
61.10% |
7.18% |
-5.81% |
||||
|
Hernando |
52.93% |
46.16% |
46.03% |
50.00% |
6.90% |
-3.84% |
||||
|
Putnam |
59.12% |
40.08% |
52.23% |
44.90% |
6.88% |
-4.82% |
||||
|
Hillsborough |
53.00% |
46.24% |
46.29% |
51.42% |
6.71% |
-5.18% |
||||
|
Polk |
58.61% |
40.79% |
52.28% |
44.81% |
6.33% |
-4.01% |
||||
|
Glades |
58.33% |
41.02% |
52.15% |
44.23% |
6.18% |
-3.21% |
||||
|
Pasco |
54.07% |
44.39% |
48.02% |
48.74% |
6.05% |
-4.34% |
||||
|
Sumter |
62.18% |
36.39% |
57.04% |
40.87% |
5.14% |
-4.49% |
||||
|
Pinellas |
49.57% |
49.51% |
44.47% |
52.74% |
5.10% |
-3.24% |
||||
|
Manatee |
56.62% |
42.66% |
51.53% |
45.86% |
5.09% |
-3.20% |
||||
|
Marion |
58.20% |
41.00% |
53.23% |
44.02% |
4.97% |
-3.02% |
||||
|
Walton |
73.22% |
25.92% |
68.56% |
28.94% |
4.65% |
-3.02% |
||||
|
Gadsden |
29.80% |
69.72% |
25.15% |
73.33% |
4.64% |
-3.61% |
||||
|
DeSoto |
58.05% |
41.18% |
53.55% |
43.28% |
4.51% |
-2.10% |
||||
|
Nassau |
72.65% |
26.16% |
68.41% |
29.73% |
4.24% |
-3.56% |
||||
|
Clay |
76.18% |
23.27% |
72.25% |
25.88% |
3.93% |
-2.61% |
||||
|
Leon |
37.85% |
61.50% |
34.09% |
64.64% |
3.76% |
-3.14% |
||||
|
Lake |
60.02% |
38.90% |
56.38% |
40.89% |
3.64% |
-1.99% |
||||
|
Bay |
71.19% |
28.08% |
67.63% |
30.24% |
3.55% |
-2.16% |
||||
|
Sarasota |
53.51% |
45.20% |
50.08% |
48.10% |
3.43% |
-2.90% |
||||
|
Alachua |
42.89% |
56.16% |
39.63% |
58.71% |
3.25% |
-2.55% |
||||
|
Brevard |
57.66% |
41.56% |
54.44% |
42.62% |
3.22% |
-1.07% |
||||
|
Hendry |
58.89% |
40.52% |
55.76% |
41.97% |
3.13% |
-1.45% |
||||
|
Duval |
57.76% |
41.65% |
54.66% |
43.71% |
3.10% |
-2.05% |
||||
|
Okaloosa |
77.65% |
21.58% |
74.70% |
22.53% |
2.94% |
-0.95% |
||||
|
Flagler |
51.03% |
48.28% |
48.13% |
49.49% |
2.89% |
-1.22% |
||||
|
Santa Rosa |
77.35% |
21.78% |
74.65% |
23.04% |
2.70% |
-1.26% |
||||
|
Volusia |
48.85% |
50.50% |
46.17% |
51.09% |
2.67% |
-0.59% |
||||
|
St. Johns |
68.60% |
30.59% |
66.19% |
32.14% |
2.41% |
-1.55% |
||||
|
Indian River |
60.12% |
39.03% |
57.80% |
39.60% |
2.32% |
-0.57% |
||||
|
St. Lucie |
47.56% |
51.81% |
45.34% |
51.70% |
2.22% |
0.11% |
||||
|
Monroe |
49.24% |
49.71% |
47.19% |
49.51% |
2.05% |
0.21% |
||||
|
Seminole |
58.10% |
41.34% |
56.11% |
41.76% |
1.99% |
-0.42% |
||||
|
Escambia |
65.30% |
33.74% |
63.55% |
34.56% |
1.74% |
-0.83% |
||||
|
Martin |
57.09% |
41.69% |
55.41% |
42.35% |
1.68% |
-0.66% |
||||
|
Palm Beach |
39.03% |
60.37% |
37.95% |
60.25% |
1.09% |
0.12% |
||||
|
Broward |
34.60% |
64.22% |
33.61% |
64.39% |
0.99% |
-0.17% |
||||
|
Orange |
49.62% |
49.83% |
49.16% |
48.99% |
0.45% |
0.84% |
||||
|
Osceola |
52.46% |
46.99% |
52.00% |
45.16% |
0.45% |
1.83% |
||||
|
Charlotte |
55.69% |
42.93% |
55.49% |
42.28% |
0.20% |
0.64% |
||||
|
Lee |
59.82% |
39.09% |
59.81% |
38.24% |
0.01% |
0.84% |
||||
|
Collier |
65.04% |
34.06% |
66.01% |
32.43% |
-0.97% |
1.63% |
||||
|
Miami-Dade |
46.66% |
52.84% |
49.28% |
48.96% |
-2.62% |
3.88% |
||||
|
Totals |
52.10% |
47.08% |
49.44% |
48.32% |
2.66% |
-1.23% |
||||
A look at all the data reveals that the top 27 counties showing a greater preference for President Bush than the Repulican Senate candidate were using optical scan voting machines. The two counties that did not show this preference were both using touchscreen voting machines. Both were iVotronic machines manufactured by ES&S.
I have updated my Excel spreadsheet on the site for those interested in examing the numbers themselves. Data in this calculation was taken from the Florida Department of State's Website.
An analysis of the House race as compared to the Presidential race shall follow soon.